Recent Labour Market Assessment Methodology
Employment and Social Development Canada's (ESDC) recent labour market assessments (RLMA) provides an overview of recent labour market conditions in Canada by economic region (ER) for occupational categories included in the National Occupational Classification (NOC).
The RLMA model uses a number of indicators to classify regional occupational (ER-NOC) labour markets in one of the following categories:
The prospect of finding work in this occupation was very good over the past few years. In this occupational category, there were far more job openings than workers available to fill them.
The prospect of finding work in this occupation was good over the past few years. In this occupational category, there were more job openings than workers available to fill them.
The prospect of finding work in this occupation was fair over the past few years. The number of workers available to work was about the same as the amount of job openings in this occupational category.
The prospect of finding work in this occupation was poor over the past few years. In this occupational category, there were more workers available for work than job openings.
The prospect of finding work in this occupation was very poor over the past few years. In this occupational category, there were far more workers available to work than job openings.
There were no sufficient data to produce an assessment of labour market conditions in that region over the past few years due to a low employment rate in that occupational category.
Labour market indicators used in the recent labour market assessments
The Recent Labour Market Assessment (RLMA) takes the following indicators into consideration:
| Indicator | Data Source | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Employment Growth | Labour Force Survey | The employment growth is defined as the average annual growth in employment by ER-NOC over the last three years. For example, for the 2022 assessment, we used the average annualized growth rate from 2020 to 2022. |
| Unemployment rate | Labour Force Survey | The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed persons expressed as a percentage of the labour force. We calculated the annual unemployment rate by ER-NOC for the most recent year as well as the average annualized change in the rate over the last three years. |
| Wage growth | Labour Force Survey | The wage growth is defined as the average annual growth in hourly wages by ER-NOC over the last three years. For example, for the 2022 assessment, we used the average annualized growth rate from 2020 to 2022. |
| Share of overtime workers | Labour Force Survey | The share of overtime workers is defined as the number of overtime workers as a percentage of the number of employed people by ER-NOC. This indicator is computed for the most recent year. |
| Share of new hires | Labour Force Survey | The share of new hires is defined as the number of employees with less than 12 months of tenure as a percentage of the number of employed people by ER-NOC. This indicator is computed for the most recent year. |
| Job vacancy rate | Job Vacancy and Wage Survey & Labour Force Survey | The job vacancy rate is defined as the number of vacant positions as a percentage of the number of employed people and job vacancies by ER-NOC. This indicator is computed for the most recent year. |
| Labour mobility | 2016 Census of Population | Labour mobility is defined as the share of the total in-migrants for each ERs by 4-digit NOC. This indicator represents a proxy for the ability of the ER to attract people from other regions. |
| EI beneficiaries to employment | Employment Insurance Administrative Data | Employment Insurance (EI) beneficiaries to employment is the ratio of the number of EI beneficiaries to employed individuals. This indicator is computed by ER-NOC for the most recent year. |
| Average number of weeks of EI benefits | Employment Insurance Administrative Data | The average number of weeks of EI benefits is computed by ER-NOC for the most recent year. |
Combining the indicators to produce assessments
The above indicators are combined to produce a composite score for each ER-NOC. The calibration and weighting methodology used in the calculation of the composite index were established in consultation with experts from Employment and Social Development Canada's National Headquarters as well as regional offices in British Colombia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario and the Atlantic Provinces. Local labour markets (defined by ER-NOC) show indications of major labour shortage, labour shortage, balanced labour market, labour surplus or large labour surplus.
Consultation with regional labour market economists
Regional economists validate the results: they agree or disagree with ESDC's assessment on labour markets in shortage/surplus and they provide rationale for assessment in areas of disagreement. The final assessment incorporates the feedback of the regional labour market experts.
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